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4 Forecast Setup Task

This chapter describes the Forecast Setup task for IPOCS-Demand Forecasting.

Forecast Setup Workspaces, Steps, and Views

The following table lists the workspaces, steps, and views for the Forecast Setup task.

Table 4-1 Forecast Setup Workspaces, Steps, and Views

WorkspaceStepViews
Forecast Setup
Workspace
General StepBasic Parameters View
Advanced Parameters View
Intermediate Level View
Final Level View
Exception Management StepBasic Parameters View
Intermediate Level View
Final Level View

Forecast Setup Workspace

The Forecast Setup workspace allows you access to all of the views listed in Forecast Setup Workspace.

The workspace is intended for the business user, who sets high level forecast parameters such as forecast length, start, or end. It is also the place to select adjustment and approval strategies through the exception management capabilities provided by RPAS.

For details on forecasting algorithms and how to tune analytical parameters, refer to the Oracle Retail AI Foundation Cloud Service User Guide .

To build the Forecast Setup workspace, perform these steps:

1. From the left sidebar menu, click the Task Module to view the available tasks.

Select Products

Select Locations

Measures: Advanced Parameters View

The Advanced Parameters view contains the following measures.

Updating Last Week Forecast

This field is a list from which you can select the method for updating the Approved Forecast for the last specified number of weeks of the forecast horizon. This option is valid only if the Approval Method Override is set to Manual or Approve by alert, and the alert was rejected. The choices are:

  • No Change

When using this method, the last week in the forecast horizon does not have an Approved Forecast value. The number of weeks is determined number of weeks elapsed between the forecast start date and the last approval date.

  • Replicate

When using this method the last weeks in the forecast horizon are forecast using the Approved Forecast for the week corresponding to the last approval date.

  • Use Forecast

When using this method, the System Forecast for the last weeks in the forecast horizon is approved.

Interval Lower Ratio

The value entered in this field multiplied by the forecast represents the lower bound of the confidence interval for a given period in the forecast horizon.

Interval Upper Ratio

The value entered in this filed multiplied by the forecast represents the upper bound of the confidence interval for a given period in the forecast horizon.

Adjust Forecast Method

This measure allows you to choose how to automatically adjust the system generated forecast. The options are:

  • No Adjustment

No adjustment is made to the system generated forecast

  • Keep Last Change

If any adjustments were done to the forecast in the previous runs, they are reflected in the Adjusted Forecast measure. In this use case, the total forecast is retained.

  • Keep Last Baseline

If any adjustments were done in the Adjusted Baseline in the previous runs, they are retained. In this use case. the system calculated peaks are applied on the Adjusted Baseline

  • Keep Last Peak

If any adjustments were done in the Adjusted Peak measure in the previous runs, they are retained. In this use case, the adjusted peaks are applied on the system calculated baseline.

Run Forecast

The Forecast Length is used with the Forecast Start Date to determine forecast horizon. The forecast length is based on the calendar dimension of the final-level. For example, if the forecast length is to be 10 weeks, the setting for a final-level at day is 70 (10 x 7 days).

If the final level is at day, and the forecast length override is specified, it can happen that the week level forecast is generated for an additional week in the future. However, when spread to day, the forecast length is respected.

The previous circumstance covers for the following case. The forecast is generated on a Tuesday, and the forecast length override 14. If a week is starting Monday, the forecast generated at week level is going to be three weeks long. However, it is going to be spread to day for only the desired 14 days.

Approve Method at Intermediate

This field is a list from which you select the default automatic approval policy for forecast items. Valid values are:

  • Manual

The system-generated forecast is not automatically approved. Forecast values must be manually approved by accessing and amending the Forecast Review view.

  • Automatic

The system-generated quantity is automatically approved as is.

  • By Alert

This list of values may also include any Forecast Approval alerts that have been configured for use in the forecast approval process. Alerts are configured during the implementation and can be enabled to be used for Forecast Approval in the Enable Alert for Forecast Approval view. Refer to the Oracle Retail Predictive Application Server Configuration Tools User Guide for more information on alerts. The Alert Parameters view contains a list and descriptions of available alerts, and for which level (causal/baseline) that they are designed for.

Adjust Forecast Method at Intermediate

This measure allows you to automatically adjust the system generated forecast.

The options are:

  • No Adjustment

No adjustment is made to the system generated forecast

  • Keep Last Change

If any adjustments were done to the forecast in the previous runs, they are reflected in the Adjusted Forecast measure. In this use case, the total forecast is retained.

  • Keep Last Baseline

If any adjustments were done in the Adjusted Baseline in the previous runs, they are retained. In this use case, the system calculated peaks are applied on the Adjusted Baseline

  • Keep Last Peak

If any adjustments were done in the Adjusted Peak measure in the previous runs, they are retained. In this use case, the adjusted peaks are applied on the system calculated baseline.

History Length at Intermediate

No Override

The default approval policy is used

  • Manual

The system-generated forecast is not automatically approved. Forecast values must be manually approved by accessing and amending the Forecast Review view

  • Auto

The system-generated quantity is automatically approved as is.

  • By Alert

This list of values may also include any Forecast Approval alerts that have been configured for use in the forecast approval process. Alerts are configured during the implementation and can be enabled to be used for Forecast Approval in the Enable Alert for Forecast Approval view. Refer to the Oracle Retail Predictive Application Server Configuration Tools User Guide for more information on alerts. The Alert Parameters view contains a list and descriptions of available alerts, and for which level (causal/baseline) that they are designed for.

Adjust Forecast Method at Final

This is the override of the Adjust Forecast Method in Advanced Parameters .

History Length at Final

This is the override of the History Length in Basic Parameters.

Assortment Start Date

If the Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment solution is implemented, this measure displays the Assortment Start Date from the solution. This date can serve as the Forecast Start Date for the item/store combination.

Assortment End Date

If the Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment solution is implemented, this measure displays the Assortment End Date from the solution. This date can serve as the Forecast End Date for the item/store combination. Note that the actual end date is given by the Assortment End Date or the end of the forecast horizon, whichever comes first.

Exception Management Step

The available views are:

  • Basic Parameters View

  • Intermediate Level View

  • Final Level View

Basic Parameters View

The Basic Parameters view allows you to view and edit threshold for approval exceptions.

1. Basic Parameters
S



—————
[1
Measure(Default)
~
Measure
Alert - Calculation Periods5
Alert - Error Threshold0.35
Alert -Average SalesThreshold1.00
Recent Sales Window52
Current Period Window13
Historic Period Window52
Alert-CausalPeakFactor1.00

In this guide