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3 IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment Configuration

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3 IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCSLifecycle Allocation and Replenishment Configuration

IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment is a forecasting and replenishment solution that uses state-of-the-art modeling techniques to produce high quality forecasts and replenishment plans with minimal human intervention.

IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment supports preprocessing, new item/store processing, forecast generation , and lifecycle item replenishment. To obtain good forecast results ,lower inventory, and improve service level, the features need to be configured to work together. IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment is highly configurable and extremely flexible. The preprocessing and forecast generation is handled on the AI Foundation side. The new item, forecast adjustment, forecast approval, and life cycle item replenishment is implemented on the RPASCE side. To streamline IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment implementation and shorten implementation time on RPASCE, several plug-ins are provided to work together with RPASCE Configuration Tools. These plug-ins let users input configuration options through the GUI and automatically generate configuration solutions based on the IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment GA master template and user inputs. The configuration solutions generated by the plug-ins are New Item, and IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment. The plugins autogenerate the hierarchies, measures, rules, workbook templates, taskflow and the Dashboard configuration file that are required by IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCSLifecycle Allocation and Replenishment to support the forecasting configuration entered in through the plug-in interface:

Table 3-1 Autogenerated Items from Plug-ins

Autogenerated EntityDescription
HierarchiesThe internal hierarchies required by the solution will be generated by
the plug-in. Labeled Intersections are autogenerated.
MeasuresAll measures necessary to support the base solution will be created.
RPASCE RulesAll Rule Sets, Rule Groups, and Rules to support the base solution will
be created.
Workbook TemplatesAll pre-defined workbook templates to support the base solution will be
created.
TaskflowThe taskflow will be auto generated based on the IPOCS-Demand
Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment template
and the levels entered in the plug-in.
Dashboard Configuration fileThe Dashboard configuration file is auto generated based on the
dashboard levels and custom exceptions enter using the plug-in.
Batch Control fileThe Batch Control file is auto generated.

IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment Batch Flow Process

Understanding the IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment batch flow process is important before starting IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment Configuration:

IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment has four major batch processes:

  • IPOCS-Demand Forecasting Pre-forecast Batch

  • IPOCS-Demand Forecasting Post-forecast Batch

  • IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment Daily Batch

  • IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment Intra-day Batch

IPOCS-Demand Forecasting Pre-forecast Batch

This batch process should run before running forecast generation in the science engine.

This batch process involves the following steps:

1. Import Hierarchy from RDX

2. Load IPOCS-Demand Forecasting Internal Hierarchy

3. Import data from RDX

4. Load IPOCS-Demand Forecasting specific data

5. Running New Item batch

6. Merge Forecasting parameters

7. Export Forecasting Parameters to RDX

IPOCS-Demand Forecasting Post-forecast Batch

This batch process should run after running forecast generation in the science engine.

Note

IPOCS-Demand Forecasting provides a mechanism to extend the GA batch process. Refer to Customizing the IPOCS-Demand Forecasting Batch Process.

This batch process include the following steps:

1. Import system forecast from RDX tables

2. Adjust system forecast to generate adjusted forecast

3. Calculate attributes needed for Approval business rule-group

4. Generate approval business rule membership

5. Assign parameter values to sku/store based on approval rule membership

6. Run the approve exceptions.

7. Approval forecast and calculate the mask for unapproved item/store..

Forecasts can be approved in three ways:

  • Manual - Nothing is approved in the batch process and you must go to the forecast review workbook to approve forecasts.

  • Automatic - All forecasts are approved by the system. IPOCS-Demand Forecasting has defined several GA approval alerts that are available for the approval process.

  • Approval by Exception - Approves forecasts based on the user specified approve exception. With no exception, the forecast is approved. With an exception, the forecast is not approved. IPOCS-Demand Forecasting provides four GA approve exceptions: forecast versus recent sales, forecast versus approved forecast, forecast versus last year sales, causal peak. Implementors can choose to disable these approval exceptions in the My Exception UI of the Forecast plug-in.

Implementors can also define custom approval exceptions through the IPOCSDemand Forecasting plug-in to create additional approval exceptions. These exceptions are also produced before approval

8. Calculate eligibility for navigation tier. All item/store with valid forecast and unapproved will participate in navigation grouping.

9. Calculate attributes needed for navigation business rule group

10. Generate navigation business rule membership.

11. Assign navigation tier based on navigation business rule membership.

12. Calculate dashboard statistics

13. Export approved forecast to RDX

Note

The Forecast Approval process is limited to the approval method selected in the Forecast Setup workbook. However, for any unapproved sku/stor, the batch calculates all enabled alerts. For this reason, the dashboard will include the number of alert hits for all of the enabled alerts from any unapproved sku/stor.

IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment Daily Batch

This batch should run after IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment Post-forecast Batch on days when IPOCS-Demand Forecasting Batch is scheduled. On other days it may run independently.

This batch process includes the following steps:

1. Import Hierarchy from RDX

2. Load IPOCS-Demand Forecasting and IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment Internal Hierarchy

3. Load IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment Data

4. Init Today

5. Init Attributes

6. Init Rule Groups

7. Calculate Assortments

8. Repl KPIs

9. Network Rules

10. Repl Param Rule

11. Repl Store

12. Repl Warehouse

13. Post Replenishment

14. Run Exports

15. Databags

IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment Intra-day Batch

This batch process is optional and can be run multiple times within a day.

This process includes the following steps:

1. Calculate Within Day Exports

2. Run Exports

Implementation Process

The IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment GA configuration can be used out of the box to build the IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCSLifecycle Allocation and Replenishment domain. The GA configuration has IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment’s point of view on how to configure a final level and how to configure business rule engine for approval and navigation.

IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment implementors can modify the IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment GA configuration to meet the retailer’s business needs. IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCSLifecycle Allocation and Replenishment supports two means to achieve this:

  • Configuring the solutions using the plug-ins

  • Extensibility of the configuration

This section explains how to configure the various solutions using the plug-ins. Extensibility of the configuration is described in IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment Extensibility. Although there is a separate plug-in for New Item and IPOCS- Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment solutions, from the Config Tools UI, you only see two plug-in dialogs:

  • Forecast Common

  • RDF

This simplifies the configuration process for the implementor.

In this step we specify the common input to both New Item and IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment.

The product attribute measure to be used in the IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCSLifecycle Allocation and Replenishment and New Item solutions has to be specified in the Common Plug-in. The product attribute measure stores the attribute position name and not the attribute label.

Labeled Intersections

The labeled intersections listed in Table 3-2 must be defined before running the IPOCSDemand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment plug-ins. The plug-in validation will ensure that the required labeled intersections are defined.

Table 3-2 Labeled Intersections
Labeled IntersectionDefinitionDescriptionMeasures Defined
SLS_INTXsku/stor/weekSales intersectionpos, rsal, psal, csal
DAYSLS_INTXsku/stor/daySales intersection at day (load
intersection)		Can be used as load intersection for
sales coming in at day level
SLSNC_INTXsku/storSales intersection without calendarldactivefcstitem, flagllc
SKUSTOROFFR_INT
X		sku/stor/offdOffer sales intersectionOffersls
SKUSTORWEEK_INT
X		Sku/stor/weekEvent calendarEventclnd, prcdiscclnd
Condmeasvalintx1ClssCondition value measureCondmeasvalnum1,
Condmeasvalstr1,
Cconmeasvaldat1
Condmeasvalintx2Dept/regnCondition value measureCondmeasvalnum2,
Condmeasvalstr2,
Condmeasvaldat2
Condmeasvalintx3Clss/regnCondition value measureCondmeasvalnum3
Condmeasvalintx4Dept/regnCondition value measureCondmeasvalnum4
Condmeasvalintx5DeptCondition value measureCondmeasvalnum5
Condmeasvalintx6RegnCondition value measureCondmeasvalnum6

Labeled Intersection Use Cases

Labeled intersections listed in Table 3-2 can be defined based on the retailers business needs. SLS_INTX is the labeled intersection for the incoming sales measures (pos, rsal, psal, csal).

Common Solutions

Open an IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment GA configuration to see the common modules. This solution should not be modified by the implementor and are considered as non-touch solutions. This solution defines input/output measures for the whole IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment project. The content created in this module will not be modified by the plug-ins. The measures created in these modules are external measures for the plug-ins, and they will serve as inputs to plug-ins. Although this module are not generated by plug-in, It will be

overridden in IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment Configuration Automation Script. Any modification by the implementor is ignored.

Common Solution

In IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment GA, the common solution is used to register measures related to sales, offers and product attribute inputs/outputs to:

  • New Item

  • IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment Solutions

Note

For the common solution, an implementor can only modify the labeled intersection definition that changes the measure intersection in common.

Set Up the New Item Solution

The New Item module is designed to support the forecast for new item/store. IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment provides three approaches to forecast new item/store:

Forecast ApproachDescription
Like ItemThe forecast is created based on the forecast of Like Items. The Like
Items can be selected manually, and the choices are entered in the User
Selected Like Items measure. The task can also be automated if attributes
are available. IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation
and Replenishment then suggests one Like Item in the system
recommended Like Item measure.
The forecast for the New Item is given by:
Base demand new item = base demand like item * Adjustment
Factor
The forecast for the New Item is calculated as:
Forecast at time t = base demand new item * seasonality at
time t (coming from escalation level) * promo and price
effects (coming from pooling level)
Base Rate of DemandIPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and
Replenishment calculates the escalated base rate of demand. The
forecast for the new item is given by:
Forecast at time t = base rate of demand (coming from
escalation level) * seasonality at time t (coming from
escalation level) * promo and price effects (coming from
pooling level)

Configuring the IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment Solution

In IPOCS-Demand Forecasting, the Demand Model to generate the forecast is:

Demand = Base Demand * Seasonality * Promo Effects * Price Effects

This is the basic model used to forecast short lifecycle and long lifecycle items. However the approach to calculate each of these components might differ.

Forecast information is often required for items at the lowest levels in a hierarchy. Problems can arise when historic sales data for these items is too sparse and too noisy to identify clear selling patterns. In such cases, calculating the seasonality curves and effects at a higher level in the hierarchy based on an escalation path, would generate a reliable forecast. The science UI provides a mechanism to define the final levels and escalation levels; and the associated parameters for each level. The default escalation path is the order in which the escalation levels are used also defined in the science UI. Users can also edit default escalation path, override the escalation path at the final level intersection from the science UI. In the IPOCSDemand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment plug-in, implementor need to define the final levels. The final levels specified in IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment plug-in must match the final levels defined in the science UI.

The IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment solution can be configured using the final level tab in the RDF plug-in UI:

Table 3-4 IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment Plug-in UI Tabs

TabsDescription
Final LevelDefine and configure final levels

Generate IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment Solutions

Perform the following steps to generate an IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment solution:

1. From the Configuration Tools toolbar, select the Automation menu and then, from the IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment option, select Specify Parameters . The following steps outline the process for configuring IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment forecast levels.

Table 3-5 Final Level Forecast Level Parameters

Final Level ParametersDescription
Level NameThe level name is the system-assigned level number when a forecast
level is created. This is a read-only parameter.
Level LabelThe level label is the level description that will be viewed by the user
once the domain is created.
Level labels may not exceed 40 characters.
The level labels must be the same as the external name used for
forecast level for science UI
Preprocess IntxThe intersection that sales will be preprocessed. If a final level ‘s
forecast intersection is sku/str/week. Its preprocessing intx is also at
sku/stor/week. If a final level’s forecast intersection is at sku/stor/day,
Its preprocessing intx is also at sku/stor/week. Sales history at day is
usually too sparse to perform efficient preprocessing.
Forecast IntersectionThis defines the level at which forecast will be generated. Usually the
final level forecast intersection will be at week. In case of daily causal
final level, the effects will be calculated at week level and the forecast
will be spread from week to day.
Intermediate Parameter IntxThis define the level at which forecast parameter can be setup.
IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and
Replenishment allows parameters to be set up at three level, at default
(scalar measure), at intermediate (measure at intermediate parameter
intx specified here), at final (measure at forecast intersectuin without
calendar).
Dashboard IntersectionThis define the lowest level at which forecast and sales statistics can
be reviewed in dashboard. implementor need to be very careful with
the selection of intersection. If it is too low, dashboard workbook will
run into performance issue. If it is too high, user loss visibility to
details.
Alert Count UpdateThis field indicates if the navigation alert in forecast approved should
be wiped out if an alerted sku/store ‘s forecast is approved. Default is
true. That means the navigation alerted item/store numbers will be
reduced as user reviewed the forecast and approved it.
Max HorizonDefines the maximum number of weeks of forecast length.
My ExceptionThis parameter provides a mechanism for the implementor to
configure custom approval exceptions and enable/disable GA provided
approval exceptions. These exceptions will be used during the batch
for Forecast approvals and is also seen in the dashboard exception
profile as a separate tile. The implementor can enter the labels for the
exception and the secondary measure such as variance measure.
Note that the implementor is responsible to configure the rule/rule
group (based on the exception definition) to populate the boolean
measure (and variance measure) for the My Exception.
My Business Rule Group TypeConfigures Rule group types and parameters. Refer to the section,
Configure My Business Rule Group Type.
Navigation TiersConfigures Tiers or Priority to view the workbook alerts in Forecast
Review workbook. Refer to the section,Configure Navigation Tiers.

Configuring the IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment Solution

Configure My Exception

This parameter provides a mechanism for the implementor to configure custom approval exceptions and enable or disable GA provided approval exceptions. These exceptions are used during the batch for Forecast approvals and are also seen in the dashboard exception profile as a separate tile. The implementor can enter the labels for the exception and the secondary measure such as variance measure.

Note that the implementor is responsible to configure the rule or rule group (based on the exception definition) to populate the boolean measure (and variance measure) for My Exception .

To add or remove custom exception, perform the following steps.

1. Click within a cell of the My Exception table to open a dialog as shown in Figure 3-7. The dialog displays a table with the columns:

  • Label - Displays the exception label name (read only)

  • Exception Metric Label - Displays the exception metric label name (read only)

  • Enable - Allows you to enable or disable GA provided exceptions

2. Click P to create additional rows for custom approval exceptions. implementors can enter labels and exception metric labels in the new custom exception. Click X to delete the custom exception.

RPAS Configuration Tools

& Forecasting Pararneters

  • Z-Axis

  • = Forecast Review (01 Unassigned =)” ApprovePP Use Custom … O ~“2. Approve Information Casboui Wierd * 1. Forecast Results Standard Wizard |sku,stor,week

  • ~” 3, Forecast Results Chart Enable Image … Oo =4, What-if Parameters Pre-Range Mask |CLND:wkrange01,PROD:activefestitem01

  • “5, Preprocess Details DPM Like-Ite…

  • Forecast Setup (01) Dim Attr Setup…

  • 2” General Use Rolling C… = Basic, Parameters Rolling Calend…/ MaxF:"",MinF :minfuture01,MaxP:"".MinP:”

  • ~~” Advanced Parameters Login User Only | Dynamic Dim

Out of the four rolling calendar range measures, only the Minimum Future has been set to the Alert Calculation window. This is set during the forecast batch.

The Minimum Past defaults to 0, which means it is not required to pull in any week prior to TODAY.

The Maximum Past and Maximum Future are also not set and will default to the current Calendar pre-range.

Note

The rolling calendar feature is not extensible and implementors cannot edit the rolling calendar range measures.

Translation Process in IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCSLifecycle Allocation and Replenishment

As part of the domain build or patch process, IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment loads the GA translation files (which includes RPASCE and taskflow files).

IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment then loads any custom translations that you may have placed on the OBJECT STORAGE in the INCOMING_FTP_PATH/translation directory.

During the patch, IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment also loads previously uploaded translation files.

For details, refer to the Internationalization chapter in the Oracle Retail Predictive Application Server Cloud Edition Administration Guide .

Note

As part of configuration or extensibility, if the implementor changes the labels of the IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment level in the plug-in, IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment generates the corresponding English (and non-english_us ) translations in the r_msglabel measure and loads it.

For locale specific translations, it is the implementor’s responsibility to upload the correct translation files.

Since the IPOCS-Demand Forecasting / IPOCS-Lifecycle Allocation and Replenishment level labels are appended to the worksheet labels, the implementor should upload the new labels.

Perform the following steps to access the position names to create the locale specific file:

1. Make sure the browser locale is English - United States

2. From the OAT configure batch task, go to the Translation Task and then, Download All Translations .

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